The Cowboys have historically been active on draft day. This year they are likely to be even more so. In this series we will take a look at different scenarios that could play out on draft day. This is the fourth of a twelve part series that looks at possible draft combinations that make plausible sense.
Determining possible trade scenarios is difficult because, you have to find trade partners willing to deal with you. Second, you have to get or give enough value to make it worth the trade. So as we look at the scenarios, we first need to make a few assumptions. These are:
- For each scenario we need to find a partner that has a need that they may want to go up for. We will analyze the win for each team in those trades.
- The article uses the widely distributed Draft Value Chart to determine trades that somewhat have equal value. When there is a point difference, the team moving up will typically be the one overpaying to make the trade happen.
- We assume the Cowboys strategy will be to move down to pick up additional picks.
Scenario four will be:
- Cowboys dropping down to the 10-12 in the first to pick up a second and third, (end up with a first, two seconds, two thirds, and two fourths)
So let’s break down the trade. Let’s assume that the Bears want to come up and get the highest rated DE in the draft. Or perhaps they would like to get Ramsey or Jack to get a playmaker for the defense. Maybe they would like to get an offensive tackle, or perhaps the QB of the future. So the Cowboys decide to give up the 4th pick and their 6th round pick to acquire the 11th, 41st, and 72nd picks. The Cowboys would gain draft value according to the draft value chart.
So the Cowboys would wind up with the 11th, 34th, 41st, 67th, 72nd, 101st, 135th, 212th, 216th, and 217th in this scenario.
Here are many possible draft combinations under this scenario. Let’s look at some possible combinations:
There are some new players on these mocks, as well as some of the familiars. We ultimately wind up with the same number of picks as in the first three scenarios. This is a very realistic scenario. It would only involve one trade for near equal value. While this may not be quite as good as a couple of the previous scenarios, I think it would still put the Cowboys into a very good position to fill the remaining holes.
Our first mock in this scenario we grab the best DE on my board. Lawson would become a starter by mid-year. With our second pick we continue to get better on defense by adding a disruptive three in Bullard. Bullard can also play some DE on the early down so he brings the versatility which the Cowboys like. With the third pick the Cowboys get their athletic corner. Burns should be there with the 41, so that is a realistic pick. Burns should become a starter in Dallas by year two, if not sooner. The same goes for Booker (or Dixon) and Boyd; they should be starters by next year, if not by the end of this year. The Cowboys then get a physical safety that can play either safety position. They also get a potential starting center in Tuerk. In the sixth they get a tall, fast safety, a developmental QB, and a fullback.
In the second mock, they get the best receiver, followed by a starting left DE (Dodd)), a quick, disruptive 3 technique (Jones) who can play some DE, a starting caliber RB, a starting caliber corner (Fuller), an eventual starting center (Allen), and a developmental QB with perhaps the best arm in the draft (Jones). They then get a fullback, developmental RB and one tech in the sixth.
In the third mock, the Cowboys get the future QB to develop, then they come back and strengthen the defense with a starting DE (Dodd), disruptive three tech (Jones), and starting corner (Fuller). They then come back and strengthen the offense by adding a polished starting third receiver (Boyd), running back (Prosise), and future center (Tuerk). When they come back in the sixth the Cowboys get a developmental running back, fullback and safety. I think the Cowboys would be very happy with this mock as well.
The fourth mock may be my favorite. In this mock they get the top RB in the first and they get a speedy receiver in the second (Fuller). Then they get a disruptive 3 tech (Jones) and starting caliber corner (Howard). The Cowboys then get two DEs with high upsides (Nassib and Blair). They then add a future starting center with the 135th pick (Tuerk). They finish the draft with a developmental QB, fullback and developmental running back.
In our dream draft, we stretch our good fortune and plan on some players falling to us. So Goff falls to the Cowboys at 11. Then they get Will Jackson, who I believe is the second best corner in the draft. They follow this up by getting Bullard, a disruptive three tech, with the 41st. Shepard is a starting quality WR, who can play inside and out. Tapper is an athletic DE who could be a 8-10 sack per year player. He would be a contributor as a right DE. Then with the 101st, the Cowboys get a talented RB who can be a change of pace and third down back (Prosise). The Cowboys then hedge their bets and get a second DE (Blair) who has a lot of upside. The Cowboys get a developmental center, QB and fullback in the sixth.
In our second dream draft, one of the best players in the draft (Lawson) falls to the Cowboys. I think he is the best DE in the draft. They follow that up by having a three tech with top 10 talent fall to them in the second (R.Nkemdiche). They then get a speed receiver who should start next year and contribute this year (Fuller). Since this is a dream draft, or wish draft, Howard falls to the third round and the Cowboys get a corner with future starting potential. Then they get a top running back (Dixon) in the mid third round. The Cowboys get Hackenburg as a developmental QB and finish their fourth round picks by getting Tuerk. In the sixth, they get a tall rangy safety, fullback and developmental running back.
If they could pull off this draft, they would be thrilled. They would get six starting caliber players and a QB with a high upside (but a low downside).
That is all for this draft scenario. Who would you draft in this scenario? Would you make the trade? Let us know your thoughts.